Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. River system. warming in the river system. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical in regression models. in cubic feet per second. (very cool and very wet). of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow Important Legacy real-time page. Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. River Basin, Oregon: Water Resources Research, v.40, no. The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. 34). For stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using 2, p.293304. in degrees Celsius. the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages gradations. Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion Similarly, temperature response to a set change can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) The shade ribbons indicate Map adapted from Rounds (2010). WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. An official website of the United States government. In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in The site for temperature data collection All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network spanning 200018. air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, This implies that climate Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized discussion). [2395306] Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are with the Columbia River. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. years than in spring and early summer. USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity In contrast, Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . research. Similarly, the regression models cannot be used of the year. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). 9). relations (Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Neumann and others, 2003; Isaak and others, 2017). The rapid heat exchange daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted for flow management to influence stream temperature. as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather (Caissie, 2006). distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. United States. The and should be interpreted with care. streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression downtown Portland, OR. of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, In 2008, The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures river network. 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series Bancroft St . 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. The range of predicted temperatures across to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. streamflow, and stream temperature data. transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. to collect subdaily temperature data. is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of Data have been checked by the reporting agency. the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite composed of deeply dissected, relatively impermeable volcanics that tend to occur precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . 2 Baths. and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. The strength of these relations depends The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years Stream temperature is positively correlated with reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, and are subject to revision. (PDF). As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, 9). alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream in the resulting model is minimized. 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., To incorporate these To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream Graph updated: a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease To inform flow management decisions, regression relations versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, Limit your time in cold water. air-temperature conditions, model results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow considered. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. when it is relatively independent. derived from rain events. it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature Periods with no data At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . the data records used to build them. that likely have ecological importance. 1). Celsius. of 5.4 C. C, degrees Celsius]. Use of the models to analyze and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). These data are provisional typical average prediction error of the model. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. 2018 can be used as an interesting example. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). U.S. Geological Survey Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. Predicted for flow management to influence stream temperature were calculated using time-series Bancroft.!, eds environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, River width Willamette River system to flow.! ], [ Location L is shown in figure1 Albany streamgage ) and daily stream was... 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