Kathmandu. The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) dispute has now centered on the resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. It appears that Oli has been cornered as he has been reiterating over and over again that he will not cave into pressure of others and resign. However, he also has not divulged the names of those who have been demanding his resignation or pressurizing him towards that.

A few months back, NCP Executive Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ had demanded Oli’s resignation bluntly at the party meeting. This time, however, Prachanda has not asked for it explicitly but has implied so through his report presented at the secretariat meeting. That has certainly unsettled Oli and his coterie.

With Prachanda’s report that alleges Oli of multiple transgressions and malfeasance, PM Oli appears outclassed. By now, it is also becoming clear as to which actors and constituencies are hell-bent on dislodging Oli from behind the scene. And the circumstances are such that both Oli and his trusted men in the party are staying tight-lipped and not pointing fingers at anyone.

The cause of Oli’s unease

Earlier, when Oli had to defend his status-quo in a similar circumstance, he had publicly pronounced that it was India and its “assets” in Nepal who were working assiduously to bring down his government. His allegation had created a ripple large enough to make Prachanda step forward and accept that he had asked for the resignation.

Oli astutely understands the Nepali sentiments that reckons India’s big brother attitude that downplays and disregards Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He has exploited this sentiment to build his nationalist image. While Nepal’s borders are encroached in many places, none in the government had spoken a word against the encroachment. Instead, their voices are muted and on multiple occasions they have willfully invited India in the internal affairs and complied with its diktats.

The economic blockade of 2015 was one such striking occasion when Nepal uncompromisingly defied India’s diktat and Oli was at the helm then. Oli gained a lot of nationalist capital by defying India’s diktats. Oli proved crafty to cash in on that nationalist spirit and sentiment and led his party to an overwhelming electoral victory making it the largest party of the country. He raised the issue of Kalapani, issued the new map of Nepal and compelled all parties of the nation to stand together united on the issue of nationality. Machinations were hatched to prevent Oli from realizing his nationalist agenda and later much effort was expended in a pursuit to topple his government. But, Oli adeptly managed to foil all those attempts and continued to reign supreme.

After all their failed attempts, the Indian political establishment seems to have reached a conclusion that it was almost impossible to oust Oli from power by protesting against him in Nepal or by cobbling an alliance against him. Thus, they appear to have devised another strategy: to listen to Oli’s demands and make it appear that they are open to dialogue. The prospect of dialogue they believe would tame and silence Oli while they engage in all other means to force him out of power.

By initiating dialogue, India – which had earlier remained reticent and had taken a position of not engaging Nepal in any way seems to have succeeded in stopping Oli’s rebukes against India’s micromanagement in Nepal’s internal affairs.

India’s grand deception seems to be working its magic. The chief of Indian intelligence agency RAW Samant Goel came to Nepal and returned after meeting PM Oli only. He reportedly listened to Oli’s positions on the border dispute and delivered the message that the Indian prime minister was willing to resolve the issue. Indian Army Chief Naravane’s visit also apparently conveyed a similar message. This led PM Oli to believe that the decades old border problem could be resolved during his tenure and that would be a great achievement for the country.

PM Oli, however, was aware that a team of intelligence agents, including former chief of RAW, Sanjeev Tripathi, had been busy hatching plots against him in Kathmandu while he was discussing issues with Goel in Baluwatar. Not only that, Goel’s visit was used to tarnish his nationalist image.

He, however, seems incapable of disclosing all these unsavory developments simply because the bilateral scenario appears to be on a positive incline. The visit of Indian foreign secretary has been finalized and the Indian side has informed that the Indian foreign minister would also visit Nepal to explore resolution on the border issues. Thus, Oli remains tight-lipped because his revelations would only spoil the likely gains.

Oli appears hopeful in the diplomatic messages conveyed by the Indian intermediaries and interlocutors. India has assured that the Kalapani issue would be a topic of discussion in the bilateral meetings and that the evidences submitted by Nepal would be documented during the talks. Resigned to this delusional hope, Oli is not exposing the machinations of Indian intelligence to topple him.

Even leaders close to him are not speaking against such sinister machinations with a belief that if the border issue could be resolved somehow, PM Oli’s status could be catapulted to soaring heights as he would attain a “great statesmen of the nation” status.

In order to salvage his fraying hold, PM Oli has sought the support from former United Marxist and Leninist (UML) leaders Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bam Dev Gautam to extricate himself from the current intractable situation. But, it is appearing to be futile. Also, it should come as no surprise if Ram Bahadur Thapa ‘Badal’ who has until now positioned himself in the Oli camp does a remarkable turnaround and gravitates towards Prachanda. It has been learnt that Prachanda had sought Badal’s consent before submitting the allegation report during the secretariat meeting.

Among the former UML leaders, Madhav Kumar Nepal was Oli’s opponent during the election for the party chair and had lost to him by a slim margin. After the election, Oli has tried his best to weaken Nepal and his group’s role in the party. For that, Nepal has obviously been aggrieved and agitated ever since. Similarly, Deputy Chair Bam Dev Gautam too has suffered from Oli’s maneuverings in the past and is sternly against him as is demonstrated through his rhetoric and posturing.

Thus, this can be the last opportunity for Prachanda to kick Oli out from power. Speculations about an internal understanding of Prachanda opting to be the prime minister and ceremonial chair of the party while Madhav Kumar Nepal becoming the executive chair of the party had surfaced quite some time ago.

The Oli government has certainly taken a stance for Nepal’s national interest. The public voted in favor of his nationalist stance and delivered a thumping two third majority in the parliamentary elections. That level of trust and support of the public has lately faltered and is fraying. This is mainly because his government has abysmally failed to provide needed relief to the people that are facing acute challenges due to the corona crisis. Also, there have been multiple instances where the government has been found supporting corrupt individuals and collaborating with them. The reckless and domineering attitude, behavior and actions of some of his close aides and advisors have only served to add more fuel to the anti-Oli fire. All of this has had a cumulative impact on the people.

Certainly Oli appears quite vulnerable at the moment and appears to be running out of options and may not have a trump card to emerge triumphant. However, only time will tell if Prachanda who is supported by most of Oli’s detractors will be able to vanquish the wily Oli .