Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. It seemed like the housing market was running away from buyers, who struggled to get offers accepted due to shockingly low inventory levels. Shouldnt I wait for mortgage rates to decrease before I buy? However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. When they were 30 in 1994, they purchased their second home for around $120,000 on a combined income of around $85,000, Branca said. The main concern is there are just not enough listed properties to go around for 500,000. Utah Housing Market Forecast, What To Look For In 2022 The housing market in 2021 made the "American dream" feel more and more out of reach for a lot of people. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . The housing market in West Jordan is competitive, with the average listed property receiving five offers and selling within 27 days on the market. Therefore, with the current small but significant price change, a seller will realize enormous overall growth and equity increase. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. Dont wait. Thank you for registering with FastExpert. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. But what about the increase in interest rates? While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . How could I possibly give an objective opinion? Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. So players should expect to see both challenges and opportunities in 2022. Additional links: Historical Utah Data Salt Lake City Real Estate Market Forecast, Salt Lake (Utah state) home price prediction. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. increase. The lights shut off. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca hang out in their living room in the apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. Thats not good news for affordability or Utahs housing shortage, which they calculate hit 31,000 units after the big home building boom of 2021. increase. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. The average annual profit of property investment was: 10.098% in 2018; . Weve been spoiled with historically low mortgage rates over the past decade. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. Median home price for Salt Lake residents over the last year was $564,062. The impact of the correction on Utahs real estate market should be softened by its robust economy and limited home inventory. 2020 further increased that number to almost 73% as median home sales prices reached $380,000. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. Windermere Foundation , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Site Map | FastExpert, inc. 2021. Prices, though theyre on a downward trajectory, are still up year over year by single-digit percentages at least for now. Others argue the apartments meet the growing demand for high-end housing in Salt Lake City, it's the latest development in what's been an expensive year to find and afford a home. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. Average income: 74197. Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022, Preston Hicks Real Estate Group - JMG Utah, What does exclusive right to sell mean? Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. The discussion between Eskic and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory Homes, which is Utahs largest homebuilder. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. I just felt totally iced out, Branca said. Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. Will it pop or deflate?, disagree over how much home prices will decline, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. Housing prices are deemed overvalued when their local incomes, job market, and economy do not support the sale prices. So youll find the deals with the homebuilders, but youre not going to find the deals on (existing) homes, Eskic said. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price. Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop. Its important to keep a tab on the housing market and current trends. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. Heres why, Buying a house? With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. While interest rates remain high, the coming year will likely see continued cooling of the housing market in Utah; however, lack of supply will buffer most markets. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year., The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market andwhether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. Property prices still remain high. Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. Despite the expensive prices, the inventory cannot keep up with the growth pace. The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. #UPDATE firms predicting that U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023:@FannieMae@Zondahome@JBREC Zelman & Associates@KPMG@GoldmanSachs@MorganStanley@WellsFargo@MoodysAnalyticsTD Bank@CapEconomics@PantheonMacroAmherstING@RedfinYieldstreet. According to the Utah real estate market predictions from industry experts, there will be an influx of sellers in the state given the present condition of not having enough supply to meet the markets unprecedented growth. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. In addition, inflation and the looming specter of a recession are also taking a toll on Utah residents buying power. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy., Wood also said even if home prices dropped 10%, they wouldnt set off a wave of foreclosures, unlike what happened in 2008, which just pulled prices down. Branca said hes struck by how wild todays home buying reality is. If you are looking to purchase your primary residence in todays market, then yes, the time to buy is today! All Rights Reserved, What will 2023 bring to the housing market? The good news for buyers who are prepared to take on high mortgage rates is that they no longer face the fierce competition of early 2022. It is a valid and fundamental question as our homes are typically the largest and most expensive asset we own. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. of $518,200. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. The Utah housing market became one of the most competitive in the country, especially in areas like Salt Lake City and St. George. The housing market in Utah is still highly competitive since the population continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and the quality of life is high. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. We dont have that.. Although demand has softened compared to last year, pushing home price growth into single-digit territory for the first time in 12 months, moderation in home price growth may encourage more buyers to return to the market in the months ahead, and may also be welcome news for sellers aiming to sell and buy at the same time., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. One of the most common myths going around about the Utah housing market forecast for 2022 and its present market is that it is just a bubble waiting to burst. So its really tough to say, but I think its going to be minimal negative, or negative positive, Yun said. Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. This current environment allows experienced and knowledgeable agents to negotiate more seller concessions, which can help buy down the rate, giving the buyers a more affordable and competitive monthly payment. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. Find an experienced, trusted local real estate agent with FastExpert. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States.. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points year. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. However, as the Federal Reserve Bank started using its economic power to fight back against inflation, which has reached a forty-year high, by increasing interest rates, the Utah housing market is beginning to show signs of a significant slowing down. I dont think thats happened yet.. In early 2022, momentum was slowing from 2021, but then the faucet just got turned off., 2021 was on fire, and in 2022 its an empty concert hall, he said. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. South Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report, North Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. CA License #01950016. A year from now whoevers right has to shave their beard off.. 10 Best Neighborhoods in the Nashville Real Estate Market 2019. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. For this reason, despite the high median property price, investors in rental properties are most likely to enjoy very good returns. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. In 2021, buyers were getting raked over the coals, having to give a years supply of pizza with their offer. Thats not hyperbole, he said. Starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank initiated an aggressive interest rate hike policy as a means to fight back against inflation. Theycan also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. 2.1 months of housing inventory. While they both agree the market is in the midst of a price correction after two years of runaway demand amid the pandemic housing frenzy, they have differing outlooks for just how deep that price correction will run next year. Utah Housing Market Overview What is the housing market like right now? Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. The ongoing upward movement of median home prices is caused by buyer competition and great urgency to acquire property ahead of rising interest rates. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. When we look at just how much weve peaked earlier this year, I think well start seeing negative year-over-year readings late winter, early spring, Eskic said. Over the next 12 to 18 months, Eskic said he expects homebuilders to offer big discounts. Not necessarily dramatic price drops, but more buyer incentives and rate buydowns, perhaps offers to finish basements. Theyre both confident Utahs job market is strong enough to avoid sweeping foreclosures and that housing demand will continue due to the states rapid growth and pervasive home shortage. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. So, while Utahs real estate market is experiencing home prices falling similar to the Nation over this past month, the trend in Utah for housing prices has been an increase. The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. Utah has had quite a long history of rapid acceleration where house prices are concerned. How to Find Multi Family Homes for Sale in 2020. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. Branca, 30, knew he wanted to buy somewhere in Salt Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work. The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. Privacy . Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. This would place . . According to Realtor.com data, the current median days listed in Utah is 52, the highest since the onset of the pandemic, but still a ways away from pre-pandemic figures. However, the spike in listing prices, mortgage rates, and rents will somehow be offset as income is also expected to rise. With nearly 2,000 miles of shoreline, Lake Powell possesses endless outdoor adventures. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. 2022's housing market follows Utah's hottest housing year ever . Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about two Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. Earlier in 2021, Utah was considered as one of the hottest markets in the country, second only to Idaho. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer. The median home price has increased from $345,000 in September 2019 to $553,500 in September 2022, with a peak of $577,500 in May 2022, representing a staggering 60.43% increase in 36 months, well above the national average. Its falling off faster than we thought it would.. Joining Good Morning Utah to share what to expect for Utah's housing market for 2022 is Ryan Kirkham with Summit Sotheby's and Utah realestate.com. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. If you ask Branca, 2022 definitely wasnt the year for buyers either. This data does not reflect actual moves. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. Therefore, experts expect that Utah home prices will slow down their staggering growth and may decline in some areas. By Sarah Burns of The Salt Lake Local Real Estate Group, October 21, 2021 Utah State #2 in Housing Price Increases Utah's equity gains sat at 28.3% between 2020 and 2021, making Utah #2 in housing . In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. Gone are the days of brutal competition. It was a year in which a boiling hot housing market saw historic deterioration, as Fortune put it. There were 73 homes sold in December this . This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. Nationwide, housing pandemic hot spots in the West have been among the first to see sale prices slashed. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Sellers are reducing prices as homes stay on the market longer. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. The West was ground zero for the pandemic housing frenzy and has also been one of the first areas to see home listing prices getting slashed as the market corrects. Although mortgage rates are expected to rise, the increase will be modest. The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County and,. South Carolina housing market Forecast for 2022, the median house price will rise $..., well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said and keep home prices will drop %! Raked over the past decade the housing market 2023 Report, North Carolina market! About 3 % month over month, home prices have decreased about 3 % month over month home. So hed have a reasonable commute to work inventory is the average annual profit of property investment was 10.098. Branca said hes struck by how wild todays home buying reality is of professional experience both in the and! And equity increase against price declines and keep home prices in Utah sold below list price, investors in properties! 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