What will be PM Oli’s next step after criticizing the Maoists?

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Kathmandu, April 22. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has been criticizing Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) to take back their support towards PM Oli.

PM Oli does not seem to want support from any faction now. But he wants neutrality from Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) leader Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato. He also does not want any vote in the parliament.

In a recent political proposal presented at a meeting of the party’s central committee, he told party leaders and cadres that preparations should be made for the election as it could be called at any time.

With a two-thirds majority, the then Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) leaders Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal’s aspirations for power could not be addressed, leading the party to the the stage of falling apart.

It was in this situation that Oli decided to dissolve the parliament. The Supreme Court has ruled that his move was unconstitutional and revived the parliament. He did not want the security of a revived parliament because it would not have a comfortable majority for his party and leadership. He understood that even if his party tries to give a majority for power bargaining, the majority will be short-lived.

PM Oli’s strategy of not allowing the opposition to reach a majority and not even wanting a majority has become the main component in Nepal’s current political scenario.

For that, the Janata Samajwadi Party(JSP) has to be kept in balance. If JSP supports Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba as the Prime Minister, as proposed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal(Prachanda), Oli’s power will fall. Then, likely a collective government of Congress, Maoists and Madhesis will be formed under Deuba’s leadership.

Oli although has succeeded in bringing JSP leaders Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato as allies to ensure there is no possibility of anyone reaching a majority against Oli immediately.

Prachanda’s faction is in a state of disintegration, with former leaders and cadres disintegrated. In this situation, Prachanda is not in favor of another parliamentary election. Instead, he is also trying to win over Mahanta Thakur by using various means of strategy and tactics, which does not seem possible for the time being.

On the other hand, Oli is now likely to move forward by proposing that the parliament to instate confidence on him, by the basis of public protests by the party leaders. If the Maoists’ support for Oli’s plan to fail, Oli has devised another strategy. According to sources, if the Maoists’ vote in his favor, he has planned to keep some MPs close to him absent from parliament during the vote so that a majority cannot be reached.

Oli’s strategy is for the minority government to dissolve parliament again and hold new parliamentary elections in November. The only precondition behind Oli’s strategy is that Mahanta Thakur’s group should not support Deuba and Prachanda and that the group should remain neutral.

 

 

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